A Warning About the Stock Market
According to an article in Bloomberg Business, “Citigroup Inc. is sounding the alarm bells for the world economy. The New York-based bank’s chief economist, Willem Buiter, said there is a 55 percent chance of some form of global recession in the next couple of years, most likely one of moderate depth and length.
“Unlike the U.S.-driven international slumps of the past two decades, this one will be generated by sliding demand from emerging markets, especially China…
“The world appears to be at material and rising risk of entering a recession, led by EMs (emerging markets) and in particular by China,” wrote Buiter.
His reasoning is that China’s economy is slowing – at the same time that other emerging markets such as Brazil, South Africa, and Russia are already in trouble. In addition, developed economies are still lackluster. Commodity prices, trade, and inflation remain sluggish, and corporate earnings are slowing.
I agree with this perspective; however, having spent extensive time in Asia and China, I believe the risks of recession are higher than 55 percent. China is definitely slowing down. One economist described this as China’s economic winter after having 40 years of spring and summer. I want you to be prepared, not panicked.
Be sure you are diversified, have no or manageable debts, and have plenty of cash reserves. Even though a downturn may not affect your investments, it will likely impact your job or business.
We don’t know when the correction will occur, but when the experts say they think it is probable, we need to pay attention. The wise man sees danger and takes cover; the fool proceeds without caution.