Today on MoneyLife with Chuck Bentley

The recession hasn’t ended officially but it's starting to feel that way. It'll take a while for the data to prove it has ended. But all the economic indicators have turned higher.

I expect this will be looked back on as the end of the recession. That just means the economy has stopped declining and has started improving.

It will be a long process to get back to where it was. Unemployment will continue to worsen, because it’s a lagging indicator. So, even though the recession is over, people won’t see improvement for a while.

Now, the economic data isn't in positive territory yet but it's getting better. When comparing current economic date to past recessions, it seems we’re reaching the end of the recession.

• Weekly unemployment claims have declined
• Manufacturing is improving
• Auto production and sales are increasing
• Third quarter GNP should be positive

Our guest today is Rusty Leonard, the Founder and CEO of Stewardship Partners Investment Council. Rusty's been on MoneyLife before, talking about the economy, and today he's back with his take on the recession.

Rusty expects we’ll look back and see the recession ended in May or June, but it's still is going to be difficult for a long time. It's been a long and deep global recession and there is a lot of repair work to be done. It's good to be moving in the right direction, but it won’t feel better for a while.

Rusty says the government has pushed the economy forward successfully and it will be interesting to see what happens in the long run because of those policies. We could have another recession if the economy doesn’t get on a self-sustaining growth track.

• We've lost a lot of jobs in manufacturing
• Factories are operating at 68.3% capacity in America, less in other countries
• Operation will improve as economy improves
• Consumer purchases drive production
  Expect it will be a slow process to return to normal
• Housing industry is starting to settle, should improve over long-term
• Cash for Clunkers should help the auto industry
• Program gives people money if they trade in an older car for a new, more fuel-efficient, car
• Has helped stimulate car sales in other countries

Chuck is concerned about the burden the program will put on taxpayers, paying more for cars than they are worth. Rusty says this is a stimulus program to transfer money from one taxpayer to another. Many people will buy a new car that wouldn’t have otherwise, and will buy sooner.

On the other hand, the Obama administration's health reform proposal isn’t good because of the high cost of it. The country can’t afford it right now. It would require a lot of new spending and taxes to support it and the numbers don’t work.

Rusty hopes that as it moves through Congress that it will be changed for the better and made smaller or dropped entirely. We need to be cutting spending, but because the President is so committed to it, Rusty is prepared for something to get passed. It will probably be less than what supporters hope and won’t be helpful.

The hHealth care proposal is dangerous for the economy because it will lead either to a massive increase in the deficit or a massive increase in taxes. It's a no win proposition for the economy. Additional deficit spending would lead to higher interest rates and a depressed economy, preventing the creation of jobs. Higher taxes also would undermine the economy, and prevent economic growth.

Regarding investments, Rusty owns some gold stocks, but he's not as concerned about the demise of the dollar as some. It would be good to be diversified and include gold in the portfolio mix.

The dollar is still the world’s currency, so don’t get concerned in the short-run that it will be replaced with something else.

• Possibility of a dollar collapse is remote at this point
• Dollar got stronger during the recession, has a great rating
• Doesn’t see China and Russia dropping the dollar
• U.S. debt levels are less than most other countries
• If we don’t get things in order, could get worse
• We're yYears away from being in danger of a complete collapse

The Great Recession started with a banking crisis and the government bailed out the banks. If they hadn’t, we could have a complete collapse and entered into a depression.

Now, the stronger banks have started repaying the money the government loaned to them, ahead of schedule. About $70-80 billion of TARP money has been repaid so far, principle with interest.

It was a good deal for taxpayers; it saved banking system, and taxpayers are getting their money back. The banking system is becoming more liquid, credit is returning to normal. The mMarkets are working better each day, a testimony to the free market system.

You can become part of Crown's effort to teach biblical stewardship by making a gift online or by calling 800-722-1976. Thank you!

Being a Success

To be a success from the biblical perspective, three prerequisites need to be met.

• Read More

Dealing with Pride

How do you break out of a pride trap? You must vow to serve God and God’s people, and then make yourself accountable to others.

• Read More

Work as unto the Lord

Being God’s emissary on the job is not difficult; it’s impossible. Only by yielding to Him can the world get a glimpse of Him through us.

• Read More

Being content

Contentment is knowing God’s plan for your life. Therefore, seek God’s will for your life, then trust God’s promises.

• Read More

Other Resources:

• ABCs of Money Package
• Career Direct
• God's Principles for Operating a Business
• Business By the Book
• Crown Mvelopes